A Betting Opportunity Has Three Clocks
Information arrival, action deadlines and reusable funds impose different timing constraints. Equal modeled returns can require different decision flexibility and capital commitment.
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19 / ANALYSIS & SYSTEMS
Prediction & uncertainty
Probability, calibration and the limits of a forecast.
How Catch the Ace Odds Actually Work
Catch the Ace combines a ticket draw with a conditional envelope draw. Ticket sales, unopened envelopes and prize amounts jointly determine a ticket’s odds and expected cash return.
Read the articleSame Projection, Different DFS Lineup Value
Two DFS lineups with equal expected points can have different expected prizes. A complete example shows how covariance and the opposing score change which lineup is worth more.
Read the articleWhy a Survivor Pool Needs a Plan Beyond the Next Pick
A one-use survivor pick consumes a future option. A complete two-round example separates next-pick survival, full-path survival and expected prize sharing.
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