A survivor pool is a contest in which an entry remains active by making successful selections across successive rounds. A one-use team rule makes each selection consume an option that would otherwise be available in a later round.

Used teams are part of the decision state

The 2026 March Mania Survivor rules allowed each team to be selected only once and eliminated an entrant unable to select an unused surviving team. A list of today’s win probabilities therefore omitted a rule-relevant input: which teams the entry had already used.

Continuation value is the expected value remaining after an action leads to a new state. In a survivor pool, that state includes the teams still eligible for selection. A pick changes immediate survival probability and the set of choices available conditional on surviving.

A complete two-round survival comparison

Take a separate two-round pool with two eligible choices, A and B, each usable once. Both teams are scheduled to play in both rounds regardless of earlier results. A has a 90% win probability in round one and 95% in round two. B has an 80% win probability in round one and 50% in round two. All game results are independent in this construction.

Picking A first leaves B for round two. The entry fails immediately with probability 10%, survives round one and then fails with probability 0.90 × 0.50 = 45%, and wins both picks with probability 0.90 × 0.50 = 45%. The three terminal probabilities sum to 100%.

Picking B first leaves A for round two. The entry fails immediately with probability 20%, survives round one and then fails with probability 0.80 × 0.05 = 4%, and wins both picks with probability 0.80 × 0.95 = 76%. Those terminal probabilities also sum to 100%.

The 90% first-round pick maximizes immediate survival. The 80% first-round pick maximizes survival through both rounds under this schedule. The difference comes from the remaining team, not from a change in either first-round forecast.

Prize allocation requires the other entries

Surviving a fixed sequence is only one possible objective. The 2026 March Mania rules split the prize among entrants surviving the full tournament, and among the previous day’s survivors if every remaining entrant was eliminated on the same day. A failed final pick could therefore still receive an award.

Add one rival to the constructed two-round pool and a sponsor-funded $100 prize, with no entry cost. The rival’s distinct selections win with probabilities 80% and 75%, independently of the focal entry’s teams. Award $100 when only one entry survives a round. Split $50 each if both fail together or both survive the second round. Stop once an award is determined.

If both entries reach round two, let p be the focal entry’s win probability and r the rival’s. The focal entry receives $100 when it alone wins, $50 when both win or both lose, and zero when only the rival wins. Its expected award is:

$100 × [p(1 − r) + 0.5pr + 0.5(1 − p)(1 − r)].

After an A-first path reaches round two, p = 0.50 and r = 0.75, giving a $37.50 continuation value. In round one, an immediate sole win has probability 18%, joint failure has probability 2%, and joint survival has probability 72%. Total expected award is 0.18 × $100 + 0.02 × $50 + 0.72 × $37.50 = $46.

After a B-first path reaches round two, p = 0.95 and r = 0.75, giving a $60 continuation value. Immediate sole win, joint failure and joint survival have probabilities 16%, 4% and 64%. Expected award is $16 + $2 + 0.64 × $60 = $56.40.

The decision tree follows the pool rules

The constructed schedule keeps both teams available for round two. A knockout tournament instead makes future eligibility depend on advancement. Opponents selecting the same teams also create dependent survival outcomes. Those mechanisms change the tree.

Working backward from terminal awards connects each pick to its continuation value. It does not establish a universal rule to save favorites. For a priced entry, the break-even total participation cost is the expected award from that complete decision model, including its sharing and elimination rules.