Same Projection, Different DFS Lineup Value
Two DFS lineups with equal expected points can have different expected prizes. A complete example shows how covariance and the opposing score change which lineup is worth more.
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23 / GAMES & OPPORTUNITIES
Fantasy & DFS
Projections, lineups, ownership and contest rewards.
The Crowd Changes What Winning Is Worth
In shared-prize contests, success probability and payout size are linked through the other winners. DFS ties, lottery jackpots and survivor pools require different sharing models.
Read the articleWhy Winning More Often Can Still Lose Money
Win rate counts successful outcomes. Expected value accounts for payout size and costs, which explains why a wager that wins more frequently can still lose money.
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