A Betting Opportunity Has Three Clocks
Information arrival, action deadlines and reusable funds impose different timing constraints. Equal modeled returns can require different decision flexibility and capital commitment.
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20 / ANALYSIS & SYSTEMS
Betting & markets
Payouts, prices, vig and expected value.
How to Value a Calcutta Bid When Your Bid Changes the Prize
A Calcutta bid can increase the prize pool it purchases a share of. The break-even bid depends on that contribution, the expected payout fraction and additional costs.
Read the articleThe Crowd Changes What Winning Is Worth
In shared-prize contests, success probability and payout size are linked through the other winners. DFS ties, lottery jackpots and survivor pools require different sharing models.
Read the articleWhy an Obscure Contest Can Still Be Hard to Beat
Low visibility does not identify weak opposition. Qualification, the actual entrant population and participation costs determine what a smaller contest is worth to a particular player.
Read the articleWhy Winning More Often Can Still Lose Money
Win rate counts successful outcomes. Expected value accounts for payout size and costs, which explains why a wager that wins more frequently can still lose money.
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