A Betting Opportunity Has Three Clocks
Information arrival, action deadlines and reusable funds impose different timing constraints. Equal modeled returns can require different decision flexibility and capital commitment.
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THE APBFF FIELD GUIDE
MECHANISMS / PROBABILITIES / PRICES
A FIELD GUIDE TO ADVANTAGE PLAY
THE GAME
IS A SYSTEM.
Casino games, sports betting, fantasy and pools. Understand the rules, evaluate the price and account for the costs of play.
Start with expected value
01 / EXPLORE THE SYSTEM
The category index
Games & opportunities 4
Sport families 9
Analysis & systems 13
02 / FIELD NOTES
From mechanism to decision
How Catch the Ace Odds Actually Work
Catch the Ace combines a ticket draw with a conditional envelope draw. Ticket sales, unopened envelopes and prize amounts jointly determine a ticket’s odds and expected cash return.
Read the articleHow to Value a Calcutta Bid When Your Bid Changes the Prize
A Calcutta bid can increase the prize pool it purchases a share of. The break-even bid depends on that contribution, the expected payout fraction and additional costs.
Read the articleSame Projection, Different DFS Lineup Value
Two DFS lineups with equal expected points can have different expected prizes. A complete example shows how covariance and the opposing score change which lineup is worth more.
Read the articleThe Crowd Changes What Winning Is Worth
In shared-prize contests, success probability and payout size are linked through the other winners. DFS ties, lottery jackpots and survivor pools require different sharing models.
Read the articleThe Scoreboard Is Not the State of the Game
A visible score omits information that can change the next legal action or its outcome. Baseball, survivor pools and disclosed game features show why decision state depends on the question.
Read the articleTHE WORKING NOTES
Put a number
on the decision.
A staking and calibration worksheet for recording probabilities, costs and outcomes. Free Excel workbook with formulas, calibration charts and worked examples.